Base rates: conditional odds by signal
For each pair and signal, how often price followed through, measured over the trailing 90 and 180 days. Every percentage carries its sample size (n) — a rate without n is not a prior, it is a guess.
"Med" is the median magnitude of the tallied outcome where one is measured: basis points of forward price move for the directional signals (CHoCH/MACD/RSI), a volatility-expansion ratio for the squeeze signal. The cross-10 MACD and session-takeout signals are hit/miss only.
AUDCAD
AUDCAD — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 61.3% | n=31 | 11.6 | 50.0% | n=66 | 0.5 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 62.8% | n=78 | — | 70.3% | n=158 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 47.4% | n=78 | 3.1 | 48.7% | n=158 | 0.8 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 60.2% | n=83 | — | 64.1% | n=167 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 47.0% | n=83 | -1.5 | 53.3% | n=167 | 4.1 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 51.9% | n=27 | 2.0 | 46.3% | n=54 | -6.1 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 34.6% | n=26 | 12.0 | 25.6% | n=43 | 16.6 |
| London session high taken | 28.6% | n=63 | — | 29.9% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 20.6% | n=63 | — | 27.6% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 11.1% | n=63 | — | 14.2% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 55.6% | n=63 | — | 59.8% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 50.8% | n=63 | — | 50.4% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 47.2% | n=36 | 1.0 | 39.1% | n=64 | 1.0 |
AUDCHF
AUDCHF — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 40.6% | n=32 | -11.9 | 45.9% | n=61 | -3.6 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 73.7% | n=76 | — | 71.3% | n=150 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 47.4% | n=76 | 4.4 | 44.0% | n=150 | 7.6 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 75.7% | n=74 | — | 75.3% | n=158 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 59.5% | n=74 | 5.4 | 56.3% | n=158 | 4.9 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 50.0% | n=30 | 0.4 | 55.2% | n=58 | 6.3 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 30.0% | n=20 | 7.6 | 29.0% | n=31 | 19.8 |
| London session high taken | 36.5% | n=63 | — | 32.3% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 14.3% | n=63 | — | 19.7% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 12.7% | n=63 | — | 15.7% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 60.3% | n=63 | — | 63.8% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 47.6% | n=63 | — | 48.8% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 32.1% | n=28 | 0.9 | 36.8% | n=57 | 0.9 |
AUDJPY
AUDJPY — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 50.0% | n=26 | 5.6 | 47.1% | n=51 | -0.9 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 66.7% | n=72 | — | 69.7% | n=152 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 47.2% | n=72 | 0.6 | 46.1% | n=152 | 4.1 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 76.1% | n=71 | — | 69.4% | n=157 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 60.6% | n=71 | 7.3 | 59.2% | n=157 | 9.1 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 68.4% | n=19 | 11.0 | 66.0% | n=47 | 11.0 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 50.0% | n=24 | -1.9 | 42.5% | n=40 | 8.2 |
| London session high taken | 30.2% | n=63 | — | 34.6% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 17.5% | n=63 | — | 18.1% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 15.9% | n=63 | — | 14.2% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 60.3% | n=63 | — | 60.6% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 46.0% | n=63 | — | 45.7% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 51.9% | n=27 | 1.0 | 50.9% | n=57 | 1.0 |
AUDNZD
AUDNZD — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 64.0% | n=25 | 8.3 | 55.1% | n=49 | 5.4 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 66.7% | n=87 | — | 66.3% | n=166 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 47.1% | n=87 | 1.6 | 46.4% | n=166 | 1.8 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 65.4% | n=78 | — | 66.1% | n=165 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 55.1% | n=78 | 2.5 | 52.1% | n=165 | 2.1 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 63.3% | n=30 | 5.3 | 66.7% | n=60 | 7.3 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 60.0% | n=25 | -1.2 | 47.6% | n=42 | 3.3 |
| London session high taken | 33.3% | n=63 | — | 31.5% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 20.6% | n=63 | — | 18.9% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 4.8% | n=63 | — | 7.1% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 50.8% | n=63 | — | 50.4% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 47.6% | n=63 | — | 42.5% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 43.8% | n=32 | 0.9 | 43.9% | n=66 | 0.9 |
AUDSGD
AUDSGD — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 53.1% | n=32 | 3.6 | 45.9% | n=61 | -2.2 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 63.0% | n=81 | — | 70.2% | n=161 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 48.1% | n=81 | 0.5 | 47.8% | n=161 | 0.6 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 78.3% | n=83 | — | 70.4% | n=162 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 51.8% | n=83 | 2.8 | 55.6% | n=162 | 5.2 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 15.4% | n=13 | -6.6 | 41.4% | n=29 | -5.5 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 52.4% | n=21 | -5.0 | 51.4% | n=37 | -3.4 |
| London session high taken | 31.7% | n=63 | — | 33.9% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 25.4% | n=63 | — | 29.1% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 17.5% | n=63 | — | 19.7% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 65.1% | n=63 | — | 64.6% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 47.6% | n=63 | — | 51.2% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 44.4% | n=27 | 1.0 | 45.8% | n=59 | 0.9 |
AUDUSD
AUDUSD — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 44.8% | n=29 | -4.2 | 38.9% | n=72 | -7.0 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 67.6% | n=74 | — | 70.3% | n=155 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 48.6% | n=74 | 0.4 | 52.9% | n=155 | -5.0 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 64.7% | n=85 | — | 63.6% | n=165 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 49.4% | n=85 | -2.1 | 49.7% | n=165 | -2.1 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 33.3% | n=15 | -16.2 | 48.6% | n=35 | -1.4 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 34.6% | n=26 | 7.2 | 31.2% | n=48 | 19.9 |
| London session high taken | 22.2% | n=63 | — | 26.0% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 23.8% | n=63 | — | 29.1% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 15.9% | n=63 | — | 13.4% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 61.9% | n=63 | — | 56.7% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 49.2% | n=63 | — | 52.8% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 35.7% | n=28 | 1.0 | 37.3% | n=59 | 0.9 |
CADCHF
CADCHF — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 55.2% | n=29 | 1.7 | 50.8% | n=61 | 0.9 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 68.1% | n=69 | — | 69.9% | n=146 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 37.7% | n=69 | 4.4 | 42.5% | n=146 | 3.5 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 67.1% | n=76 | — | 67.6% | n=145 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 52.6% | n=76 | 2.2 | 55.9% | n=145 | 4.4 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 62.5% | n=24 | 8.8 | 54.3% | n=46 | 6.5 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 53.3% | n=15 | -3.5 | 53.3% | n=30 | -3.1 |
| London session high taken | 30.2% | n=63 | — | 28.3% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 15.9% | n=63 | — | 18.9% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 31.7% | n=63 | — | 35.4% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 69.8% | n=63 | — | 69.3% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 60.3% | n=63 | — | 62.2% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 36.7% | n=30 | 0.9 | 37.9% | n=66 | 0.9 |
CADJPY
CADJPY — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 60.0% | n=30 | 8.2 | 56.4% | n=55 | 3.5 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 62.8% | n=78 | — | 59.9% | n=162 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 39.7% | n=78 | 8.7 | 40.7% | n=162 | 7.9 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 67.9% | n=78 | — | 66.0% | n=153 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 55.1% | n=78 | 3.2 | 59.5% | n=153 | 8.7 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 58.3% | n=24 | 8.0 | 51.0% | n=51 | 1.3 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 52.9% | n=17 | -0.4 | 48.5% | n=33 | 1.6 |
| London session high taken | 39.7% | n=63 | — | 40.9% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 12.7% | n=63 | — | 15.0% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 22.2% | n=63 | — | 24.4% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 61.9% | n=63 | — | 63.0% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 54.0% | n=63 | — | 53.5% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 52.0% | n=25 | 1.1 | 40.0% | n=60 | 0.9 |
CHFJPY
CHFJPY — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 53.3% | n=30 | 0.9 | 53.8% | n=52 | 1.8 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 71.2% | n=80 | — | 69.2% | n=156 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 52.5% | n=80 | -3.0 | 50.6% | n=156 | -1.0 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 63.9% | n=72 | — | 64.0% | n=150 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 56.9% | n=72 | 4.9 | 51.3% | n=150 | 1.0 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 26.3% | n=19 | -11.5 | 39.1% | n=46 | -8.5 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 52.0% | n=25 | -9.8 | 52.4% | n=42 | -2.9 |
| London session high taken | 25.4% | n=63 | — | 25.2% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 36.5% | n=63 | — | 27.6% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 23.8% | n=63 | — | 20.5% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 52.4% | n=63 | — | 53.5% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 63.5% | n=63 | — | 55.9% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 50.0% | n=30 | 1.0 | 37.7% | n=61 | 0.8 |
EURAUD
EURAUD — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 48.7% | n=39 | -0.0 | 47.2% | n=72 | -3.0 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 77.8% | n=72 | — | 69.2% | n=146 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 47.2% | n=72 | 0.8 | 54.8% | n=146 | -3.2 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 67.5% | n=80 | — | 70.0% | n=160 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 46.2% | n=80 | -3.0 | 44.4% | n=160 | -5.2 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 57.7% | n=26 | 5.5 | 54.1% | n=37 | 4.0 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 50.0% | n=16 | -1.4 | 53.8% | n=39 | -1.8 |
| London session high taken | 20.6% | n=63 | — | 23.6% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 25.4% | n=63 | — | 28.3% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 12.7% | n=63 | — | 12.6% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 49.2% | n=63 | — | 48.0% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 57.1% | n=63 | — | 59.1% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 41.7% | n=36 | 0.9 | 37.5% | n=64 | 0.9 |
EURCAD
EURCAD — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 60.0% | n=30 | 4.0 | 53.8% | n=65 | 4.0 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 71.6% | n=67 | — | 72.1% | n=136 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 46.3% | n=67 | 4.0 | 55.9% | n=136 | -3.4 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 62.2% | n=90 | — | 64.4% | n=174 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 46.7% | n=90 | -3.3 | 46.0% | n=174 | -3.3 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 43.3% | n=30 | -1.9 | 43.4% | n=53 | -2.5 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 74.1% | n=27 | -9.9 | 61.0% | n=59 | -7.1 |
| London session high taken | 23.8% | n=63 | — | 26.8% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 34.9% | n=63 | — | 37.0% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 38.1% | n=63 | — | 40.2% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 68.3% | n=63 | — | 67.7% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 69.8% | n=63 | — | 70.9% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 45.2% | n=31 | 0.9 | 39.7% | n=58 | 0.9 |
EURCHF
EURCHF — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 44.8% | n=29 | -3.8 | 49.3% | n=67 | -0.6 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 65.4% | n=78 | — | 66.7% | n=162 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 30.8% | n=78 | 12.3 | 39.5% | n=162 | 4.4 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 69.7% | n=66 | — | 66.7% | n=144 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 54.5% | n=66 | 2.7 | 58.3% | n=144 | 3.7 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 70.0% | n=20 | 7.6 | 55.3% | n=38 | 1.6 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 21.4% | n=14 | 8.5 | 30.8% | n=26 | 7.9 |
| London session high taken | 30.2% | n=63 | — | 27.6% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 12.7% | n=63 | — | 15.7% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 25.4% | n=63 | — | 27.6% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 74.6% | n=63 | — | 73.2% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 50.8% | n=63 | — | 53.5% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 37.0% | n=27 | 0.9 | 36.8% | n=57 | 0.9 |
EURGBP
EURGBP — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 47.8% | n=23 | -1.2 | 44.8% | n=58 | -2.0 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 72.7% | n=77 | — | 70.5% | n=146 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 59.7% | n=77 | -3.5 | 54.8% | n=146 | -2.9 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 72.0% | n=75 | — | 77.9% | n=154 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 44.0% | n=75 | -1.2 | 47.4% | n=154 | -0.3 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 43.8% | n=16 | -4.3 | 36.7% | n=30 | -7.8 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 46.2% | n=26 | 1.4 | 46.3% | n=41 | 1.6 |
| London session high taken | 20.6% | n=63 | — | 21.3% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 28.6% | n=63 | — | 26.8% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 39.7% | n=63 | — | 33.9% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 71.4% | n=63 | — | 64.6% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 68.3% | n=63 | — | 69.3% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 48.6% | n=35 | 1.0 | 41.5% | n=65 | 1.0 |
EURJPY
EURJPY — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 40.7% | n=27 | -2.1 | 42.9% | n=56 | -2.0 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 70.4% | n=71 | — | 67.7% | n=155 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 39.4% | n=71 | 7.6 | 38.1% | n=155 | 8.8 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 81.5% | n=65 | — | 72.7% | n=150 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 67.7% | n=65 | 14.2 | 62.0% | n=150 | 8.1 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 36.4% | n=22 | -4.5 | 37.8% | n=45 | -6.5 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 31.6% | n=19 | 12.7 | 30.3% | n=33 | 16.8 |
| London session high taken | 36.5% | n=63 | — | 38.6% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 15.9% | n=63 | — | 15.7% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 17.5% | n=63 | — | 13.4% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 63.5% | n=63 | — | 61.4% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 47.6% | n=63 | — | 40.9% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 51.6% | n=31 | 1.0 | 36.9% | n=65 | 0.9 |
EURNZD
EURNZD — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 62.5% | n=16 | 15.6 | 56.0% | n=50 | 4.3 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 64.9% | n=94 | — | 68.2% | n=176 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 54.3% | n=94 | -3.0 | 56.8% | n=176 | -3.9 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 79.3% | n=82 | — | 76.1% | n=163 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 52.4% | n=82 | 5.1 | 53.4% | n=163 | 4.3 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 37.0% | n=27 | -18.6 | 35.4% | n=48 | -19.2 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 68.0% | n=25 | -21.4 | 51.2% | n=41 | -8.6 |
| London session high taken | 23.8% | n=63 | — | 27.6% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 25.4% | n=63 | — | 25.2% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 6.3% | n=63 | — | 15.7% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 47.6% | n=63 | — | 54.3% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 46.0% | n=63 | — | 54.3% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 31.4% | n=35 | 0.8 | 40.0% | n=65 | 0.8 |
EURSGD
EURSGD — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 36.1% | n=36 | -8.9 | 35.9% | n=64 | -8.6 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 73.1% | n=78 | — | 75.0% | n=152 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 46.2% | n=78 | 1.2 | 51.3% | n=152 | -0.3 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 66.7% | n=72 | — | 71.8% | n=149 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 48.6% | n=72 | -0.5 | 44.3% | n=149 | -1.4 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 25.0% | n=8 | -10.8 | 38.1% | n=21 | -2.4 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 58.8% | n=17 | -1.4 | 47.1% | n=34 | 2.7 |
| London session high taken | 22.2% | n=63 | — | 30.7% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 36.5% | n=63 | — | 34.6% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 28.6% | n=63 | — | 29.9% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 61.9% | n=63 | — | 62.2% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 65.1% | n=63 | — | 66.1% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 41.2% | n=34 | 0.9 | 41.9% | n=62 | 0.9 |
EURUSD
EURUSD — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 41.2% | n=34 | -6.7 | 44.4% | n=72 | -6.7 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 68.8% | n=77 | — | 69.1% | n=152 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 49.4% | n=77 | 0.4 | 55.3% | n=152 | -6.2 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 63.2% | n=76 | — | 61.2% | n=160 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 55.3% | n=76 | 3.5 | 46.2% | n=160 | -3.8 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 12.5% | n=16 | -18.4 | 34.3% | n=35 | -9.2 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 45.5% | n=22 | 7.9 | 52.1% | n=48 | -0.9 |
| London session high taken | 23.8% | n=63 | — | 26.8% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 27.0% | n=63 | — | 31.5% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 25.4% | n=63 | — | 26.8% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 55.6% | n=63 | — | 58.3% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 66.7% | n=63 | — | 66.9% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 40.6% | n=32 | 1.0 | 41.8% | n=55 | 1.0 |
GBPAUD
GBPAUD — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 44.8% | n=29 | -1.8 | 48.3% | n=60 | -1.6 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 68.8% | n=80 | — | 68.8% | n=170 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 45.0% | n=80 | 4.1 | 52.4% | n=170 | -1.2 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 63.4% | n=71 | — | 73.3% | n=146 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 52.1% | n=71 | 2.3 | 45.9% | n=146 | -3.6 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 32.1% | n=28 | -6.3 | 25.0% | n=44 | -12.8 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 60.0% | n=20 | -3.3 | 47.6% | n=42 | 0.4 |
| London session high taken | 19.0% | n=63 | — | 22.0% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 25.4% | n=63 | — | 29.1% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 11.1% | n=63 | — | 15.0% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 47.6% | n=63 | — | 50.4% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 58.7% | n=63 | — | 59.8% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 40.0% | n=25 | 0.9 | 43.4% | n=53 | 0.9 |
GBPCAD
GBPCAD — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 66.7% | n=27 | 11.1 | 56.4% | n=55 | 1.4 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 65.7% | n=67 | — | 73.5% | n=132 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 46.3% | n=67 | 3.2 | 52.3% | n=132 | -1.6 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 64.9% | n=74 | — | 69.0% | n=155 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 48.6% | n=74 | -0.5 | 52.3% | n=155 | 1.1 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 48.1% | n=27 | -2.4 | 38.8% | n=49 | -5.4 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 52.4% | n=21 | -0.5 | 44.2% | n=43 | 8.1 |
| London session high taken | 23.8% | n=63 | — | 23.6% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 34.9% | n=63 | — | 29.9% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 31.7% | n=63 | — | 32.3% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 68.3% | n=63 | — | 68.5% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 63.5% | n=63 | — | 63.0% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 48.6% | n=35 | 1.0 | 44.3% | n=61 | 1.0 |
GBPCHF
GBPCHF — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 41.9% | n=31 | -6.5 | 37.1% | n=62 | -8.5 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 67.7% | n=65 | — | 67.1% | n=143 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 41.5% | n=65 | 7.9 | 46.2% | n=143 | 0.5 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 68.4% | n=76 | — | 71.3% | n=164 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 56.6% | n=76 | 2.3 | 57.9% | n=164 | 5.9 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 59.3% | n=27 | 6.1 | 48.8% | n=41 | -0.5 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 8.3% | n=12 | 15.9 | 24.2% | n=33 | 18.1 |
| London session high taken | 33.3% | n=63 | — | 29.9% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 17.5% | n=63 | — | 22.8% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 47.6% | n=63 | — | 48.0% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 77.8% | n=63 | — | 78.7% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 68.3% | n=63 | — | 68.5% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 37.9% | n=29 | 0.8 | 33.3% | n=57 | 0.8 |
GBPJPY
GBPJPY — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 58.3% | n=24 | 7.5 | 58.0% | n=50 | 8.0 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 54.1% | n=74 | — | 66.9% | n=145 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 41.9% | n=74 | 7.5 | 41.4% | n=145 | 8.6 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 64.5% | n=76 | — | 74.2% | n=155 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 63.2% | n=76 | 4.1 | 63.2% | n=155 | 8.5 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 51.7% | n=29 | 3.4 | 52.0% | n=50 | 3.2 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 45.5% | n=22 | 3.7 | 35.9% | n=39 | 13.4 |
| London session high taken | 27.0% | n=63 | — | 31.5% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 12.7% | n=63 | — | 14.2% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 25.4% | n=63 | — | 21.3% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 65.1% | n=63 | — | 64.6% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 54.0% | n=63 | — | 48.8% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 42.3% | n=26 | 1.0 | 30.6% | n=62 | 0.9 |
GBPNZD
GBPNZD — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 53.8% | n=26 | 4.6 | 47.6% | n=63 | -6.7 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 70.5% | n=78 | — | 68.5% | n=162 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 52.6% | n=78 | -0.4 | 50.0% | n=162 | 0.3 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 73.2% | n=82 | — | 73.3% | n=161 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 59.8% | n=82 | 8.2 | 54.7% | n=161 | 5.2 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 48.1% | n=27 | -4.6 | 41.3% | n=46 | -9.3 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 50.0% | n=22 | 1.8 | 37.5% | n=40 | 18.9 |
| London session high taken | 30.2% | n=63 | — | 31.5% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 23.8% | n=63 | — | 22.8% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 6.3% | n=63 | — | 12.6% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 57.1% | n=63 | — | 58.3% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 42.9% | n=63 | — | 48.8% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 46.2% | n=39 | 0.9 | 45.3% | n=64 | 0.9 |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 51.6% | n=31 | 4.1 | 54.8% | n=62 | 3.9 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 63.6% | n=66 | — | 68.1% | n=141 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 43.9% | n=66 | 4.1 | 49.6% | n=141 | 1.5 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 68.1% | n=72 | — | 66.5% | n=158 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 52.8% | n=72 | 1.3 | 48.1% | n=158 | -2.1 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 41.7% | n=24 | -5.1 | 40.5% | n=37 | -6.4 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 45.8% | n=24 | 0.2 | 42.6% | n=47 | 3.3 |
| London session high taken | 22.2% | n=63 | — | 23.6% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 25.4% | n=63 | — | 29.9% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 30.2% | n=63 | — | 27.6% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 58.7% | n=63 | — | 60.6% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 66.7% | n=63 | — | 63.8% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 45.7% | n=35 | 0.9 | 42.6% | n=61 | 0.9 |
NZDCAD
NZDCAD — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 68.2% | n=22 | 9.5 | 66.0% | n=47 | 13.2 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 80.8% | n=73 | — | 79.1% | n=148 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 54.8% | n=73 | -8.6 | 54.7% | n=148 | -8.0 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 69.8% | n=86 | — | 67.2% | n=177 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 48.8% | n=86 | -2.8 | 47.5% | n=177 | -3.1 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 55.6% | n=27 | 17.2 | 48.6% | n=37 | -6.2 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 44.0% | n=25 | 10.4 | 45.3% | n=53 | 9.9 |
| London session high taken | 23.8% | n=63 | — | 25.2% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 36.5% | n=63 | — | 38.6% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 15.9% | n=63 | — | 18.9% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 52.4% | n=63 | — | 57.5% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 58.7% | n=63 | — | 57.5% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 41.2% | n=34 | 1.0 | 38.1% | n=63 | 0.9 |
NZDCHF
NZDCHF — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 43.5% | n=23 | -3.3 | 40.4% | n=57 | -7.6 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 68.7% | n=83 | — | 69.3% | n=163 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 49.4% | n=83 | 1.1 | 52.8% | n=163 | -4.3 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 70.7% | n=82 | — | 68.2% | n=173 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 53.7% | n=82 | 2.7 | 52.6% | n=173 | 2.2 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 64.3% | n=28 | 32.3 | 48.9% | n=45 | 0.0 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 47.8% | n=23 | 0.0 | 32.6% | n=43 | 8.7 |
| London session high taken | 31.7% | n=63 | — | 32.3% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 14.3% | n=63 | — | 20.5% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 11.1% | n=63 | — | 16.5% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 52.4% | n=63 | — | 58.3% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 46.0% | n=63 | — | 51.2% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 60.0% | n=35 | 1.1 | 46.9% | n=64 | 1.0 |
NZDJPY
NZDJPY — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 46.9% | n=32 | -6.8 | 47.5% | n=59 | -7.6 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 58.9% | n=90 | — | 63.4% | n=164 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 55.6% | n=90 | -6.0 | 53.0% | n=164 | -3.9 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 59.7% | n=77 | — | 64.1% | n=167 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 61.0% | n=77 | 13.7 | 54.5% | n=167 | 5.9 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 78.3% | n=23 | 35.0 | 73.8% | n=42 | 21.8 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 57.7% | n=26 | -17.2 | 50.0% | n=40 | 4.4 |
| London session high taken | 34.9% | n=63 | — | 31.5% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 30.2% | n=63 | — | 26.0% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 15.9% | n=63 | — | 11.8% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 58.7% | n=63 | — | 55.1% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 46.0% | n=63 | — | 44.1% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 37.5% | n=24 | 0.9 | 45.3% | n=53 | 1.0 |
NZDUSD
NZDUSD — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 48.3% | n=29 | -7.0 | 57.1% | n=63 | 11.0 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 70.7% | n=82 | — | 69.0% | n=158 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 59.8% | n=82 | -11.6 | 60.1% | n=158 | -13.3 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 63.9% | n=83 | — | 65.3% | n=170 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 54.2% | n=83 | 2.6 | 48.8% | n=170 | -0.9 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 60.9% | n=23 | 15.7 | 54.1% | n=37 | 5.1 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 75.0% | n=24 | -27.6 | 52.3% | n=44 | -3.0 |
| London session high taken | 22.2% | n=63 | — | 25.2% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 33.3% | n=63 | — | 34.6% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 15.9% | n=63 | — | 15.7% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 49.2% | n=63 | — | 52.0% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 52.4% | n=63 | — | 55.9% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 50.0% | n=24 | 1.0 | 38.6% | n=57 | 0.9 |
SGDJPY
SGDJPY — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 65.0% | n=20 | 8.0 | 50.0% | n=50 | 0.4 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 67.5% | n=80 | — | 62.1% | n=169 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 31.2% | n=80 | 6.7 | 37.3% | n=169 | 5.9 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 68.0% | n=75 | — | 71.1% | n=149 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 62.7% | n=75 | 5.8 | 59.7% | n=149 | 5.8 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 78.3% | n=23 | 13.5 | 58.5% | n=41 | 7.2 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 50.0% | n=16 | 0.8 | 50.0% | n=24 | 1.2 |
| London session high taken | 57.1% | n=63 | — | 55.1% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 9.5% | n=63 | — | 14.2% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 20.6% | n=63 | — | 17.3% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 66.7% | n=63 | — | 64.6% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 44.4% | n=63 | — | 42.5% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 50.0% | n=28 | 1.0 | 30.8% | n=65 | 0.8 |
USDCAD
USDCAD — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 70.4% | n=27 | 7.1 | 67.3% | n=49 | 5.0 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 67.4% | n=86 | — | 66.0% | n=156 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 46.5% | n=86 | 2.7 | 42.9% | n=156 | 4.8 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 62.2% | n=74 | — | 64.7% | n=156 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 52.7% | n=74 | 2.7 | 53.8% | n=156 | 3.3 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 45.8% | n=24 | -0.4 | 47.1% | n=51 | -0.7 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 41.2% | n=17 | 1.4 | 43.2% | n=37 | 1.1 |
| London session high taken | 25.4% | n=63 | — | 30.7% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 30.2% | n=63 | — | 30.7% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 30.2% | n=63 | — | 34.6% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 66.7% | n=63 | — | 70.1% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 63.5% | n=63 | — | 64.6% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 51.5% | n=33 | 1.0 | 44.1% | n=59 | 1.0 |
USDCHF
USDCHF — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 56.7% | n=30 | 12.2 | 55.6% | n=63 | 7.7 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 63.6% | n=66 | — | 68.0% | n=147 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 34.8% | n=66 | 13.5 | 39.5% | n=147 | 9.6 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 70.2% | n=84 | — | 70.0% | n=160 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 58.3% | n=84 | 8.8 | 54.4% | n=160 | 6.5 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 44.8% | n=29 | -7.4 | 50.9% | n=57 | 5.1 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 14.3% | n=14 | 33.4 | 26.7% | n=30 | 23.6 |
| London session high taken | 38.1% | n=63 | — | 36.2% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 17.5% | n=63 | — | 20.5% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 31.7% | n=63 | — | 27.6% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 74.6% | n=63 | — | 70.1% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 52.4% | n=63 | — | 55.1% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 43.3% | n=30 | 0.9 | 40.0% | n=55 | 0.9 |
USDJPY
USDJPY — conditional odds by signal| Signal | 90d p | 90d n | 90d med | 180d p | 180d n | 180d med |
|---|
| 1H CHoCH follow-through | 45.0% | n=20 | -2.9 | 52.7% | n=55 | 0.4 |
| 1H MACD bear cross (10-bar) | 72.5% | n=80 | — | 64.7% | n=167 | — |
| 1H MACD bear histogram down | 30.0% | n=80 | 7.4 | 31.1% | n=167 | 11.6 |
| 1H MACD bull cross (10-bar) | 71.8% | n=71 | — | 72.9% | n=144 | — |
| 1H MACD bull histogram up | 62.0% | n=71 | 3.5 | 64.6% | n=144 | 8.4 |
| 1H RSI overbought, up after | 62.5% | n=32 | 4.7 | 52.8% | n=53 | 3.8 |
| 1H RSI oversold, down after | 31.2% | n=16 | 4.4 | 26.7% | n=30 | 21.5 |
| London session high taken | 50.8% | n=63 | — | 47.2% | n=127 | — |
| London session low taken | 12.7% | n=63 | — | 14.2% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo high AND low both taken | 23.8% | n=63 | — | 18.1% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session high taken | 66.7% | n=63 | — | 65.4% | n=127 | — |
| Tokyo session low taken | 44.4% | n=63 | — | 43.3% | n=127 | — |
| 1H volatility squeeze expands | 36.4% | n=33 | 0.8 | 43.5% | n=69 | 0.8 |