Measured base rates, updated with evidence.

Central banks: rate paths and bias

The observed rate-decision history for the G8 central banks: current rate, the moves that got there, and the latest vote split where one is published.

Decision history since 2026-02-02. "Bias" is the net direction of moves observed in this window (hike/cut/static) and how many.

G8 central banks — rate path and bias
BankCcyCurrent rateRecent movesBiasLast vote
RBAAUD4.35%hike 2026-02-02 (3.60%→3.85%); hike 2026-03-16 (3.85%→4.10%); hike 2026-05-05 (4.10%→4.35%)hike (×3)not published
FedUSD3.75%no moves observed in windowstatic (×0)not published
BOEGBP3.75%no moves observed in windowstatic (×0)3-0-6 on 2026-07-30
RBNZNZD2.50%hike 2026-07-07 (2.25%→2.50%)hike (×1)not published
ECBEUR2.40%hike 2026-06-11 (2.15%→2.40%)hike (×1)not published
BOCCAD2.25%no moves observed in windowstatic (×0)not published
BOJJPY<1.00%hike 2026-06-15 (<0.75%→<1.00%)hike (×1)not published
SNBCHF0.00%no moves observed in windowstatic (×0)not published