Current stanceformed 2026-08-18 20:01 ET · latest emission is a restatement
Because
- AUDUSD confirmed a 4H close above the 0.71399 swing high taken at 05:00 UTC, re-establishing upward structure after the previous episode closed on invalidation
- AU 2y yield firmed +1.2bp over 4h and +3.2bp over 1d to 4.602%, maintaining G8-wide yield advantage backed by RBA stance at 4.35%
- Confidence held at low given calibration feedback (18.8% realized hit rate at low) and truncation of benchmark levels from the briefing
Ends if (any one)
- AUDUSD 4h closes < 0.7129
- type: cb_move · bank: RBA · direction: cut
- AUD macro surprise of magnitude ≥ 0.5
Episode history (1)
| Opened | Stance | Max conf. | Restatements | Closed | Closure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 20:01 ET | bullish | low | 7 | open | — |
Expressed by
Ranked focus crosses with a AUD leg — the arithmetic lives on the focus board.
2y yield
4.57%
2026-08-24 02:20