Current stanceformed 2026-08-18 23:22 ET · latest emission is a restatement
Because
- re-opening the view the evaluator closed on Aug 19 because the evidence genuinely re-formed over the weekend: US-Canada talks collapsed, 50% tariffs on ~US$20bn of Canadian goods went live Aug 22 with dollar-for-dollar retaliation set for Sep 8 and no new talks planned
- the reopen priced it as CAD-idiosyncratic (all seven CAD legs -33.6 to -42.7bp, median -37.9bp) and this run confirms it close-confirmed: USDCAD took the prior-day high and closed above the 1.3796 1H swingH, CADJPY broke its 1H swingL, AUDCAD closed above two 4H swing highs
- holding at low despite the catalyst: the crowded CAD short caps follow-through, the Tuesday tariff-suspension precedent means a snap reversal can gap this back within hours, and my medium bucket realizes 10.0% vs 18.3% at low (n=60/206)
Ends if (any one)
- USDCAD 4h closes < 1.3732
- pct: 0.5 · ccy: CAD · type: basket_move · comparator: >
- type: cb_move · bank: BOC · direction: hike
Episode history (1)
| Opened | Stance | Max conf. | Restatements | Closed | Closure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 23:22 ET | bearish | low | 6 | open | — |
Expressed by
Ranked focus crosses with a CAD leg — the arithmetic lives on the focus board.
2y yield
3.04%
2026-08-24 02:20