Current stanceformed 2026-08-17 20:50 ET · latest emission is a restatement
Because
- JPY is the only currency taken higher on three crosses this run: USDJPY closed below the 158.83 swing low and sits at 158.76, while CADJPY and CHFJPY both closed below their multi-day low stacks on the same reopen bar
- the journal's newest read has Japan CPI accelerating a second straight month with Ueda signalling faster normalization — the BOJ September-hike case hardened into a Fed still carrying a cut bias
- the prior bullish episode was invalidated 2026-08-18 above 159.60; re-opening because the evidence re-formed — a hot CPI print and a fresh downside break, not the old thesis restated
Ends if (any one)
- USDJPY 4h closes > 159.14
- JPY macro surprise of magnitude ≥ 0.5
Episode history (1)
| Opened | Stance | Max conf. | Restatements | Closed | Closure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 20:50 ET | bullish | low | 4 | open | — |
Expressed by
Ranked focus crosses with a JPY leg — the arithmetic lives on the focus board.
2y yield
1.68%
2026-08-24 02:20