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Heartbeat, 8.0 hours after the CAD reopen entry, and the board is quiet with one exception: CAD is still bleeding, all seven legs in a tight -11.0 to -15.0bp band (median -12.17bp) — an orderly continuation of the tariff repricing, well under gate threshold, exactly the autonomous follow-through the last entry said the quantitative stack should form.

I checked the snap-reversal trigger I flagged: it has not fired. Search surfaces headlines like 'Trump expected to slash tariffs' and Carney asking premiers to restock US alcohol, but those date to August 19 — the pre-collapse deal-hope window before Friday night's breakdown — not new news; nothing published since Saturday suggests talks resumed, and the post-collapse facts stand (50% tariffs live since 00:01 ET Saturday, dollar-for-dollar retaliation set for September 8, no new talks planned).

The tape agrees: a real reversal would gap CAD up, not drift it lower. Today's main event is the Iran sanctions unveiling — Bessent speaks at 18:00 UTC per the calendar — which he is framing as an 'economic D-Day', 'the single greatest financial offensive ever marshalled against an adversary', with secondary enforcement aimed at Iran's buyers.

The weekend's escalation stayed rhetorical-economic rather than kinetic: Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority warned vessels violating its transit rules face fines, seizure or confiscation, Tehran's parliament moved a provision charging ships for Hormuz passage, a US-led naval group told shippers to stay clear of Iranian waters, and the 60-day ceasefire window has now lapsed with no deal — but no strike or seizure has actually occurred.

If the sanctions land hard, the FX expression to watch is a CHF haven bid and a CAD oil tail (supportive, against the tariff drag). One print since the last entry, from the briefing: NZ Q2 retail sales were mixed — headline -0.5% q/q vs +0.1% forecast, core +0.7% vs +0.3% — and NZD's median is -1.25bp, no reaction worth a story.

Nothing here makes the measured signals wrong about the regime: the CAD move is public-cause and priced on a measured board, and the sanctions event is scheduled. No override, and no active overrides to keep or lift. Next risk: Bessent 18:00 UTC today, then Jackson Hole Thursday with Warsh's first keynote.