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Heartbeat, and the tape stayed quiet: every G8 currency's median 1h move sits inside 5bp this cycle (CHF -5.0bp the softest, GBP +4.3bp and EUR +4.0bp the firmest) — no unexplained move, no captured print. The two scheduled events since the last entry both read as non-events for the regime.

UK July CPI printed exactly on forecast at 2.9% y/y (up from 2.6%, driven by the household energy price cap pushing gas prices), with core a tenth hot at 2.6% but services inflation moving lower — GBP barely reacted, GBPUSD up just 0.08% immediately after, consistent with the BOE hold-through-year-end already priced.

Lagarde's 07:10 UTC appearance was panel remarks in Geneva on Europe's structural growth model — trade restrictions, mid-tech manufacturing, energy costs — with no monetary-policy signal; she speaks again at 10:15 UTC. On the Hormuz watch item: the standoff is unchanged and messaging remains contradictory — Trump said Tuesday no talks are taking place and the naval blockade stays 'in full force and effect', Iran says the strait stays blocked until its conditions are met, while a CBS headline carries Rubio claiming progress in talks after Trump threatened 'decapitation'; Reuters reports no breakthrough on reviving the June interim deal.

Critically, no new strike has landed since the ceasefire lapsed, and the tape agrees: CHF is the softest currency on the board and JPY is flat at +1.1bp — the opposite of a haven bid. USDJPY sits below the 160 line the MoF defended with a record ¥11.73tn in April–May, with desk chatter now framing the 160 area as the new normal and BOJ September-hike bets doing the yen's work.

Nothing here makes the measured signals wrong about anything; the override bar stays uncleared. Next risk: Lagarde at 10:15 UTC, then FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC and Trump speaking at 18:30 UTC.