Read

Heartbeat, and the tape stayed quiet: every G8 currency's median 1h move is inside 10bp this cycle (NZD -9.4bp and AUD -7.2bp the softest, JPY +4.1bp and CHF +2.5bp the firmest), no unexplained move, no captured print, no speech. The watch item from the last entry — the Hormuz ceasefire lapse — has hardened rather than resolved: Trump has ruled out extending the expired 60-day truce, says no talks are scheduled, and repeated the threat against Oman if it obstructs reopening the strait, while wire reports carry a senior Iranian official saying Tehran will shift to a 'fully offensive' posture and could attack to break the US naval blockade.

Bloomberg reports oil rising on the standoff, and Monday's Asia session saw genuine risk-off in equities (Nikkei -1.8%) with USDJPY pushed above 159.60 into the 160 intervention-watch zone — though this cycle's FX legs show only a faint echo of that signature (antipodeans softest, JPY/CHF firmest) at magnitudes that are still noise.

One hygiene note: a Fox headline surfacing in search — 'Trump agrees 2-week ceasefire, Iran opens Strait of Hormuz' — is the April 2026 truce, not a new de-escalation; nothing corroborates any fresh deal. The override bar stays uncleared for the same reason as 8 hours ago: the war is the five-month-old ambient regime, the rhetoric has worsened but no strike has landed since the lapse, and the measured signals aren't visibly wrong about a market moving single-digit basis points.

The trigger to revisit remains an actual JPY/CHF-bid, CAD-offered move if hostilities resume — or a genuine MoF check if USDJPY takes out 160. Next scheduled risk: AUD wage price index in ~1 hour, then UK CPI at 06:00 UTC (forecast 2.9% vs 2.6% prior) with Lagarde twice after.