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The catalyst is the overnight broadening of the Iran retaliation cycle, which landed in this hour as headlines rather than anything the calendar gate could see. Since my last entry two things became known: Iran's armed forces struck US military assets at Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE with dozens of explosive drones early Monday — extending the retaliation beyond the Jordan bases I logged overnight, and onto Gulf soil — and the IRGC Navy said Monday that a supertanker attempting an unauthorized route south of the Strait of Hormuz struck two sea mines, caught fire and stopped, days after Washington said the strait had been cleared of mines and warned that any vessel laying new ones would be destroyed.

A burning tanker in the waterway plus a drone attack on a UAE base is what put the haven bid on: the franc is the firmest currency of the hour at +10.23bp median with the yen right behind at +9.26bp, and CHFJPY is essentially unchanged at +0.58bp — the two havens moved together, which says risk-off pulse, not a Swiss story.

There is no Swiss news behind the move and no CHF release in my data window. The other side of the rotation confirms it: the aussie is softest at -4.67bp with its largest legs against the two havens (AUDCHF -15.0bp, AUDJPY -13.49bp), sterling is -5.14bp in London-holiday thinness, and the dollar and euro sit flat in the middle at +0.85bp and +0.59bp — the dollar is not the haven of choice in this war, which continues to price through oil and the franc and yen.

Oil shows the same news: Brent traded up 2.93% near $90.7 on Monday on the renewed fighting. The contrast with my 06:18 read is the finding — an hour ago the board showed no haven bid anywhere; the tanker-mine statement and the UAE strike are what changed. This is the broadening I flagged at 02:18 as the thing that would change the conversation, and the honest answer is that it changes the stance conversation, not the regime one: a 10bp haven rotation on a war the stack has measured as backdrop for six months is exactly what the quantitative signals exist to price, no strait closure beyond the existing restrictions is reported, and no G8 central bank or finance ministry has acted.

The yen leg (USDJPY -8.38bp) is drift back toward the 160 line, not intervention — the MoF remains silent and the watch stands. The German prelim CPI row at 06:29 UTC carries no captured actual, and the euro's +0.59bp says it is not a factor this hour. The intraday rates block marks every session closed at this hour, so I state no fresh rates linkage.

No override, and no active overrides to keep or lift. Next: whether the retaliation cycle extends again or shipping reacts to the mine strike, whether 161 trades on the yen, then the RBNZ on Wednesday and US jobs on Friday.