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Japan's growth revision is the cause. In the hour into Tokyo's Tuesday morning the yen rose a median 19.6 basis points against all seven of its major counterparts — its largest hour since Monday's break itself, and half again as large as the biggest of the swings that made up yesterday's surge-and-exhale rhythm — taking 21.5 basis points from the dollar, 20.0 from sterling and 19.8 from the euro, while every other currency on the board sat within four basis points of flat.

The trigger was Japan's revised second-quarter GDP, published in Tokyo this morning and revised higher, with the capital-spending component upgraded much as last week's corporate spending survey had signalled. The direction matters more than the size. Capital expenditure was the one soft component in the preliminary reading, and it was the last piece of evidence available to anyone arguing the Bank of Japan should wait; pre-release commentary already put the odds of a hike at the 17-18 September meeting near 80 percent, so this print does not raise the number so much as remove the objection.

Monday's rally was bought on words — Governor Ueda hinting the meeting will discuss higher rates, the prime minister's economic adviser talking of a follow-up by January. This is the first hard datum that endorses them, and Tokyo, trading its first full session since the break, bought it on sight.

The bond market pointed the same way for once. US Treasury futures rallied across the curve in thin overnight trade — the two-year note contract up 1.5 basis points of price on the hour, the ten-year up 5.8, the ultra bond up 11.4 on the hour and 17.1 over four — all marking yields lower and led by the long end.

For two sessions the yen had been climbing into a widening rate gap: against rising European yields on Monday afternoon, against a selling American long bond an hour ago. This hour both sides finally converge, Japanese policy expectations firming while American yields fall, which is the configuration that does the most damage to dollar-yen and the first stretch of this run in which the differential is an ally rather than an obstacle.

The caveat is the clock: this is the overnight book, and it is thin. Nothing else demands attention. Sterling is the board's softest major after the retail consortium's sales monitor printed 0.5 percent on the year against a 1.2 percent forecast and a 1.0 percent previous, though the currency gave up less than a basis point on it.

The New Zealand dollar is the second firmest, up 3.8 basis points with manufacturing sales at 3.1 percent on the quarter against 2.8 previously. The Canadian dollar is firm into counter-tariffs on about C$27.6 billion of US goods that come into force today, with goods already in transit exempt.

And nothing official stands behind the yen: the summer's operations, including August's record month, were mounted against yen weakness, not strength. The question is unchanged, but it now has a data point on its side. Having ended Monday near 154.36 after a 1.2 percent fall, dollar-yen is lower again, and the 155.20-155.25 floor it broke through on the holiday is still untested from below.

New York returns to a full session today owing three answers at once — the break, the tariffs, and its own week, with August CPI on Friday before the Federal Reserve meets on the 15th and 16th. Until that vote lands, the yen is trading its own central bank, and this morning the data voted with it.