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Eight hours since the last entry and price action stayed inside noise all cycle — every G8 currency's median 1h move sits under 4bp (GBP the largest at 3.8bp) — so there's no unexplained move, no captured print, and no speech to explain. The only calendar rows this cycle (UK claimant count and average earnings) printed at 06:00 UTC, before the prior entry's 08:18 UTC timestamp, and were already covered there; nothing new since.

The one real update is on the Iran/Strait of Hormuz situation the last entry flagged as unconfirmed: it's real, and it just moved. Multiple outlets (CNN, CNBC, Al Jazeera) confirm this is the ongoing US-Israel/Iran war that began 28 February 2026, and the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire tied to it expired yesterday (17 Aug) with no extension — Trump has ruled one out and threatened to strike Oman if it 'gets in the way,' while Iran's foreign minister says there is no ceasefire and no active talks (Qatar and Pakistan are relaying messages, nothing more). Shipping through Hormuz has collapsed to roughly 3 vessels/day versus ~130/day before the war. This is a live escalation risk, not stale background, and it deserves to be watched closely over the next cycles.

It does not clear the override bar right now, though. The war itself is five and a half months old and has been the ambient regime for that whole span — this cycle's ceasefire lapse is an intensification, not a rupture that started today — and critically, none of this cycle's moves carry a risk-off signature: JPY -1.7bp, CHF +1.7bp, CAD -2.2bp, all inside noise, no safe-haven bid, no CAD oil-supply premium. The measured signals aren't visibly wrong about anything at the moment; the tape is just quiet. If Hormuz strikes resume post-ceasefire and actually show up as a JPY/CHF/CAD move, that's the trigger to revisit an override — not this heartbeat. Dollar remains soft near recent lows, consistent with the dovish-Fed backdrop already covered in prior entries; nothing new there. No active overrides exist to keep or lift.