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Heartbeat, 8.0 hours after the last entry, and the board is flat: every G8 currency's median 1h move sits inside 2bp this cycle except NZD (+6.72bp across all seven legs, still nothing), no unexplained move, no captured print, no speech to explain. The day's one scheduled event has passed and it did not move FX: Bessent's 'Operation Economic Outcast' press conference sanctioned nearly 60 entities, individuals and vessels, expanded the secondary-sanctions categories to digital assets, gold, aviation, technology and shipping, and said Trump is phoning world leaders with 'specific requests' to cease trading with Tehran, with the US sending per-country timelines to shut down identified activity.

Asked about Chinese banks, Bessent said 'no one is above the reach of U.S. sanctions' — so China is not exempt in principle — but no secondary sanctions were actually imposed on a Chinese or Indian buyer today, and critics read the announcement as short on specifics. Oil took it as no supply shock: WTI fell about 2.5% to $84.89 and Brent 2.5% to $92.06, profit-taking after last week's gains.

Iran's answer stayed verbal — Economy Minister Madanizadeh said 'you will fail this time too', Rezaei's weekend 'seismic' threat to stop 'a single drop of oil' leaving the region stands, and parliament advanced its Hormuz service-fee law — but I found no seizure, strike or kinetic incident in the strait dated August 24.

On the CAD un-collapse trigger: it has not fired. Search does surface 'Carney and Trump are holding private talks to drop tariffs' and a 'good conversation' headline, but both are stale CBC pieces — the first is from the run-up to the 2025 G7 in Alberta and the second is dated September 3, 2025 — and CBC's actual post-collapse line is Carney saying he will resume negotiating when the Trump team has 'the right attitude', with Vance saying Carney tried to 'out-tough' Trump; the 50% tariffs and the September 8 dollar-for-dollar retaliation stand.

CAD's median is -1.29bp: the tariff repricing has stopped grinding for now, which is a pause, not a reversal. The genuinely new US story was rates, not sanctions: CNBC reported Treasury may tap the roughly $1tn General Account (about $935bn as of August 20) to fund the enlarged long-end buybacks that run September 9 to November 4, taking the 10-year down 4bp to 4.70% and the 30-year to 5.23%; USD's -0.99bp median says FX barely noticed.

Equities were mixed (S&P -0.28% to 7,652.86, Nasdaq -0.76% on chips, Dow +0.26%). USDJPY sits near 159.08 with a September BOJ hike priced around 82%, so the yen remains the pair to watch for verbal intervention, but nothing official has happened. Nothing here makes the measured signals wrong about the regime: the sanctions package is public and was priced on a measured board without an oil shock, the trade war is a standing regime the stack is already trading, and no official actor is setting any G8 currency's price.

No override, and no active overrides to keep or lift. Nothing high or medium sits in the upcoming calendar window this cycle; the week's remaining USD events are July PCE Wednesday and Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote Thursday.