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Heartbeat, 8.0 hours after the last entry, and the board is quiet after the morning's US data: every G8 currency's median 1h move sits inside 4.5bp (USD +4.22bp and CAD +4.05bp the firmest, JPY -2.83bp and GBP -2.64bp the softest), no unexplained move, no captured print, no speech to explain.

The day's scheduled event landed as the briefing shows it: Core PCE m/m 0.2% vs 0.2% forecast (previous 0.1%), Prelim GDP q/q 1.5% vs 1.5%, and the one beat, the GDP Price Index at 6.4% vs 6.2%, alongside low-impact Durable Goods +1.1% vs 0.4% (core 0.4% vs 0.6%), Personal Income +0.4% vs 0.2% and Spending +0.2% vs 0.1%.

The read on the street is 'sticky, in line, keeps a hike on the table': Forbes and IndexBox put September hike odds a touch above 40% after the report, up from the high-30s priced going in, and desks say Warsh's Friday keynote will set the final September pricing rather than today's number.

The rates block agrees the print was a mild hawkish tilt, not a shock — USD 10y futures -5.762bp of price 1h and -12.954bp 4h (yields up), Ultra bond -8.428bp/-16.842bp, 2y -1.139bp/-4.176bp, while Bunds sold off in step (Bund -4.053bp/-14.17bp, Buxl -2.867bp/-20.034bp, Schatz -2.372bp/-5.454bp, all yields up) and every EUR-vs-USD spread is inside 6bp of price on the open, non-thin session (10y 4h -1.216bp, ccy yields up vs USD; 1h +1.709bp the other way), so this is a parallel global yields-up hour after US data, not a European story.

USD's +4.22bp median is what a 'hike stays live' print buys. Stocks are marginally lower into Nvidia after the close (S&P -0.12%, Dow -0.08%, Nasdaq -0.16%; consensus EPS $2.09 on $92.2bn revenue). Two developments since the last entry, neither regime-changing. On Canada, the negotiating channel has reopened at the ministerial level: LeBlanc met Lutnick in Washington on Tuesday for 90 minutes in what the Canadian side called a 'constructive and lengthy' meeting with 'a sense of optimism', while Trump, asked by CNN whether the US had added conditions at the eleventh hour as Carney charged, answered 'that sounds like me'.

That is a correction to yesterday's 'no talks have resumed' — talks are talking again — but the 50% tariffs stand, the September 8 countertariffs stand, and no terms have moved; CAD's +4.05bp median is a modest bid in the most crowded short on a reopened door, not an un-collapse.

On Iran, the strait is not open and Tehran says so: Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the agreed Iran–Oman route is 'temporary', that Iran does not consider the strait open, that reopening requires the US to honour the Islamabad MoU commitments (end of the war on all fronts, lifting the blockade, Yemen), and that a permanent route needs 30 to 60 more days of technical talks; Trump posted on Truth Social that the US Navy has removed or detonated all mines in the strait's international waters, with a 'zero tolerance' policy and Space Force monitoring, and any vessel laying new mines will be 'immediately and systematically destroyed'.

Tehran is conducting internal consultations on the US proposal Pakistan carried and says a formal response will follow. Oil read the net as de-escalation for a third straight day — crude around $80.8, down about 1.9% — and no seizure, strike or kinetic incident has been reported since Monday night's tanker hit off Oman.

The yen sits around 159.00 after pulling back from Tuesday's 159.45 with a Reuters poll showing 57% of economists now expecting a September BOJ hike to 1.25%; no official activity and no fresh MoF comment. GBP's softness is drift: gilts are around 4.99% and the only UK print was the low-impact CBI Realised Sales at -48 vs -35 (previous -26); the low-impact Swiss UBS expectations print was 12.1 vs 10.0 previous and CHF is flat.

Nothing here makes the measured signals wrong about the regime: the US data was a scheduled print the calendar accounts for, priced in a measured, non-thin session; the Canada channel reopening is public and CAD is being priced by the market, not an official actor; and the Iran story remains diplomatic-economic with oil confirming.

No override, and no active overrides to keep or lift. The upcoming calendar window is empty; next risks are Nvidia after the US close and Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote Friday August 28 at 14:00 UTC.