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Heartbeat, 8.0 hours after the last entry, and the board is quiet through the New York close with one currency leaning: AUD is the firmest at +6.93bp median, all seven legs positive with the largest against USD (+8.23bp) and JPY (+7.79bp), under gate threshold and with no Australian headline behind the hour — the leg profile is a risk-beta bid and it coincides with Nvidia's after-hours reversal higher, so read it as continuation of Wednesday's hot-CPI bid (BBH: the July print 'supports carry and RBA risk') riding a risk-on impulse, not news.

Every other median sits inside 2.5bp (CHF +2.50bp, NZD -2.34bp, USD -1.10bp); no unexplained move, no captured print, no speech to explain. The event since the last entry was Nvidia after the close, and it beat on every line: EPS $2.22 vs $2.09 expected, revenue $96.2bn vs $92.27bn (up 106% y/y), data-center revenue $89bn vs $85.4bn, and Q3 guidance of $108bn (range $105.8–110.1bn) vs the Street's $103.9bn; the stock dipped on the release as the Q3 gross-margin guide of 74% (vs 75% this quarter) landed, then rose more than 4% after hours as Huang said demand is 'accelerating'.

That is the AI-earnings risk the last two entries flagged, resolved benignly: the cash session closed flat into it (S&P 500 7,676, -0.01%; Dow +0.05%; Nasdaq 100 -0.5% on chips), the 10-year held around 4.64%, and the rates block agrees the afternoon was a mild rally — USD 10y futures +8.649bp of price over 4h and the Ultra bond +14.051bp (yields down), with the last thin-session hour drifting the other way (10y -1.44bp, yields up; every USD cell is thin, so provisional) — while the closed European curve carries a Buxl giveback (-10.54bp of price 4h, yields up) against a flat Bund (+0.812bp, yields down) and no spread is evaluable.

USD's -1.10bp says FX did not trade the print; DXY sat under 99.00 all day as desks squared up for Warsh. On Canada, the reopened channel held: LeBlanc left Washington Wednesday with, in his office's words, a sense that progress was made after the 90-minute Lutnick meeting on specific proposals, and the technical negotiation now continues between Ambassador Hillman and USTR Greer; the 50% tariffs stand, the September 8 countertariffs on roughly 700 products at 15–50% stand, and no terms have moved, so CAD's +0.13bp is exactly what a talks-without-terms day buys.

The un-collapse trigger has not fired. On Iran, the standoff stays diplomatic-economic and oil says so for a third day: WTI fell 2.8% to about $80.09 and Brent 2.4% to about $86.44, the lowest in more than two weeks, on the Iran–Oman corridor framework and the read that economic pressure threatens supply less than kinetic escalation; Trump's line, per CNN's Wednesday coverage, is that the sanctions will win the war.

Tehran's formal answer to the US offer Pakistan carried has not come — Rezaee told Munir that internal consultations continue and a response will follow, and that Washington must 'change its behavior' and implement the Islamabad MoU — and no seizure, strike or kinetic incident has been reported since the tanker hit off Oman at 20:57 UTC on August 24.

The yen is around 159.0–159.3 with a September BOJ hike to 1.25% priced near 80% and no official activity or fresh MoF comment; JPY's -0.13bp is nothing. Nothing here makes the measured signals wrong about the regime: Nvidia was a scheduled corporate event that resolved into the tape, the Canada channel is public and CAD is market-priced, and the Iran story is de-escalating with oil confirming.

No override, and no active overrides to keep or lift. The upcoming calendar window is empty; the Jackson Hole symposium opens Thursday and Warsh's first keynote as Chair is Friday August 28, with markets pricing roughly one-in-three odds of a September hike and 80% of economists in CNBC's survey wanting him to say more about his view of the economy — that is the week's event, and Thursday is positioning into it.