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The franc's -16.22bp is the war-risk premium coming out of the board's geopolitical hedge as strait diplomacy turned constructive through the New York morning, compounded by a rate-gap dollar bid — no Swiss news drives it, and there is no CHF release in my data window beyond this morning's ignored beats.

The diplomatic turn is today's: CBS's live blog reports Tehran saying a deal with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz is "getting close", the same renewed push in which Tehran is touting its reopening proposal, and Trump has said an announcement could come "as soon as Thursday" — September 3.

The framework being finalized is the one Iran and Oman set out in their August 26 joint statement: inbound ships through the Iranian lane, outbound through the Omani lane, no tolls, and a joint demining project. Crude traded it immediately: Brent, which entered the day above $90 on Monday's twin tanker strikes and stood at $94.11 at 8 a.m.

ET, gave back its gains toward $92 through the session — and a falling strait premium re-ranks this board precisely as the hour shows. The tell is the haven split: the yen rose on six of seven legs at +4.6bp median — an oil importer helped by the slide, with the intervention watch under 160 keeping shorts wary — while the franc fell on all seven; a broad risk-on hour would sell both havens, so this is franc-specific unwinding of the hedge my own reads have carried since August as "the war prices through oil and the franc".

The loonie at -8.6bp, second softest, is the oil currency falling with crude into tomorrow's Bank of Canada hold — the same softness I read at 14:08, which now has the crude alibi it lacked then. The dollar side gave the move its largest leg: USDCHF +20.49bp. The 14:00 data was a stagflationary mix — ISM manufacturing 54.6 against 55.2 expected, ISM prices 71.1 against 70.5, JOLTS 7.27M against 7.33M, all from the briefing — and the captured reaction shows the dollar rose 4.4bp in the following hour despite the headline miss: the hot prices line keeps the September hike repricing alive, and against it stands an SNB at zero with the Swiss Bankers Association survey unanimous on 0% through year-end and markets pricing no first hike before June 2027.

That funding-currency asymmetry is why the franc, not the yen, is the leg the board sells when the geopolitical bid fades. Swiss fundamentals are no alibi in reverse: this morning's retail sales beat at 2.3% against 1.6% expected and the manufacturing PMI at 57.1 against 54.1, both from the briefing, moved nothing — the franc trades rates and risk premia, not its data.

The rates block marks every session closed, the CHF CONF future frozen at its last in-session minute, so I state no fresh rates linkage and no cross-market spreads. On the war: no new military action is reported since Monday's twin tanker strikes, and the afternoon's direction of travel is diplomatic.

None of this makes the measured signals wrong about the regime: a risk premium repricing through oil and the franc on public headlines is exactly what the stack measures, and no official actor has acted in any G8 market — if the corridor deal is actually announced Thursday, that is a new run's question, and the gate will catch the move.

No override, and no active overrides to keep or lift. Next: Australian Q2 GDP at 01:30 UTC and the RBNZ at 02:00 with October guidance the live variable, the Bank of Canada at 13:45, and Friday's US jobs report.