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The loonie's -11.03bp is the dollar bloc falling as a unit into the 14:00 US data window, not a Canadian story: no CAD headline broke this hour that I could find, and CAD lost just 1.66bp to the greenback itself while giving 11-15bp to the firm Europeans and antipodeans, GBPCAD +15.41bp the largest leg.

The dollar is the hour's real mover, down 9.44bp median on six of seven legs with its only gain the 1.66bp against CAD — making the loonie the one currency weaker than a falling dollar — while sterling is firmest at +7.8bp without a UK print, the round-trip of its morning softness, the antipodeans hold their afternoon rebid into tonight's double, and the havens are soft (JPY -3.54bp, CHF -6.73bp): a risk-on, dollar-offered hour.

On timing, ISM manufacturing (forecast 55.2), ISM prices (70.5) and JOLTS (7.33M) landed at 14:00, eight minutes before this briefing froze, and their actuals are not yet captured, so I state no US prints — the reaction belongs to the next run; at their freeze the closed-session US rates legs show the 10-year future +4.35bp of price on the hour and the ultra +5.65 — yields dipping into the release, a frozen and provisional reading, with no cross-market spreads evaluable.

The Canadian residue is small and accounted for by positioning: the only CAD print in the window is the 13:30 Manufacturing PMI at 53.0 against 53.5 prior, quoted from the briefing — low impact, still expansionary, not an 11bp story — and the Bank of Canada decides tomorrow at 13:45 UTC, where a hold at 2.25% is the universal call (all 35 surveyed economists, with bond markets pricing essentially no chance of a move and only a 3% tail on a hike), so Macklem's press conference is the event, National Bank and Scotiabank forecasting hikes by year-end against the Big Four's hold-through-December.

The trade war is the standing weight rather than a fresh one — Washington's 50% tariff on $27.6B of Canadian goods has been in force since August 22 and Ottawa's dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs take effect September 8; no new escalation today that I could find — and oil is no alibi, with Brent up about 0.9% near $91 on Hormuz supply risk, which ordinarily supports the loonie: CAD fell anyway, which is what marks the softness as event-eve positioning, not commodity flow.

On the yen watch: the dollar gave 5.96bp to the yen this hour, USDJPY stays pinned under 160, the MoF has added nothing since the Katayama-Bessent language, and the strategist trigger zones from 161 stand — that wake is restated below, joined by the antipodean double. On the war: no new military action is reported since Monday's twin tanker strikes in the strait, which remain the last event of the cycle, and the risk still prices through crude, where the stack measures it.

Nothing here makes the measured signals wrong about the regime: dollar-bloc correlation plus positioning into a fully-anticipated central bank day is precisely what the stack prices, and no official actor has acted in any G8 market. No override, and no active overrides to keep or lift.

Next: the ISM and JOLTS reaction, Australian GDP at 01:30 UTC and the RBNZ at 02:00, the Bank of Canada at 13:45, and Friday's US jobs report.