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The kiwi's +11.15bp is the sell-the-fact unwind running out of sellers, not fresh news — no NZ headline broke in this window that I could find, and the nearest event, Breman's 03:00 press conference, sits just outside the gate's ±2h calendar check and added nothing to reverse on: coverage timestamped 04:32 UTC has the kiwi moving little on her remarks, and first-impressions analysis holds the gradualist framing, with an October hold seen and the next hike in December.

The shape of the legs says the same thing: NZD's largest gain is the 16.03bp it took from a dollar that fell on all seven of its own legs (-5.66bp median), while against the two currencies with independent bids the kiwi managed only 4.62bp on AUD and 3.11bp on JPY — so this median is mostly the dollar side plus mean reversion after the 63.77bp captured fall in the decision hour and the presser-hour extension I read at 04:58.

The aussie's +6.95bp is the same bounce from the same bloc-wide unwind, past its GDP beat. The dollar's offered side of the hour has a visible driver in the yen at +7.96bp with USDJPY giving 12.74bp: September BOJ hike pricing keeps hardening after Ueda's every-meeting language, with coverage noting Bessent's remarks could effectively lock the bank into the move — and no US print lands until ADP at 12:15 UTC, leaving the greenback drifting into its BoC-and-jobs week.

On the intervention watch: no MoF operation is reported and the strategist trigger zones from 161 stand — that wake is restated below. The rates block is absent from this briefing entirely, so I state no fresh rates linkage and no cross-market spreads. On the war: no new strike wave is reported overnight after Tuesday's CENTCOM operation, though Iran's foreign ministry alleges a US airstrike hit a wedding party in Hormozgan province Tuesday evening and Tehran is publicly urging a return to the June deal while Trump vows to hit harder on any further retaliation — the risk still prices through crude, where the stack measures it.

Nothing here touches the regime: a post-event retracement inside a quiet late-Asia hour is exactly what the measured signals price on their own, and no official actor has acted in any G8 currency market. No override, and no active overrides to keep or lift. Next: ADP at 12:15 UTC, the Bank of Canada at 13:45 with Macklem's press conference at 14:30, and Friday's US jobs report.