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The yen's rally has stopped being about Japanese data and started being about positioning. In the hour into late Tokyo morning it rose a median 31.9 basis points against all seven of its major counterparts — its largest hour since Monday's break itself, more than half again as large as the hour that followed the growth revision and more than twice the one that followed the wage print — with nothing scheduled inside it.

That absence is the finding, not a gap. Data hours are large and then settle; liquidation hours compound, and this is the fourth yen-buying hour of the session and by far the biggest, after 12.7, 19.6 and 14.1 basis points before it. Dollar-yen has traded into the 153s, as strong as 153.80 on Tuesday after a 1.2% overnight rally, the yen's best level since 18 February, with gains this month of almost 4% that make it the strongest currency in the G10 — and this hour took more still.

Reporting now names the mechanism plainly: the break through 155 triggered stop-loss orders, the 152 area is in traders' sights, and what is setting the price is the unwinding of yen-funded carry positions, the expectation of Japanese capital coming home, and open political pressure from Washington, where the US Treasury secretary said at the start of this month that he believes Japan's government and central bank will do the things that lead to a stronger yen.

The fundamental case behind the move — a fully priced hike on 17-18 September, wage growth that printed 4.7% on the year against a 3.8% forecast, the quarter revised to 0.4% — has not changed. It has simply stopped being the thing that moves the price hour to hour. The kiwi is the session's other question, and the answer sits inside the same trade.

The New Zealand dollar fell a median 18.2 basis points, lower against all seven of its counterparts including 14.5 against the Australian dollar, so this is not only the yen leg being sold. New Zealand's dollar is the classic long side of a yen-funded carry position, and it handed the yen the largest single move anywhere on the board, 48.6 basis points, against 34.0 from the Australian dollar and just 25.8 from the US dollar.

That ordering is the diagnosis. If this were a dollar story the dollar would sit at the wrong end of the list; instead it is firmer against six of its seven counterparts and softer only against the yen. It is a carry list, sorted by who owes the most yen. China supplied the rest of the kiwi's hour.

Its August trade figures landed inside the window and came in mixed — exports in line with forecasts, the import side falling short of them. Imports are the half of that release which reads as Chinese domestic demand rather than re-exported components, and it is the consumer-facing commodity exporters, New Zealand's dairy trade above all, that answer to domestic demand more than to iron ore.

Underneath both is a rate path that has stopped helping: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised to 2.75% last week but guided gradual, the governor wanting time to judge how earlier hikes feed through and the assistant governor pointing at December, leaving markets pricing a heavy chance of an October pause.

The kiwi's carry advantage is flattening in the same week the cost of funding it in yen is rising, which makes it the worst-positioned major in the market's biggest trade. The bond market stayed on the yen's side. In the overnight book the whole US curve rallied — the ultra bond future up 14.2 basis points of price on the hour and 36.9 over four, the ten-year note up 5.8 and 14.6, the two-year up 1.1 and 2.7 — all marking yields lower and led again by the long end, and European debt did the same, the Buxl up 12.7 on the hour and 28.4 over four, the Bund 5.7 and 14.0.

Dollar and euro rate support is eroding while Japan's improves, which is the configuration that does dollar-yen the most damage. The caveat is unchanged from an hour ago: this is a thin overnight book. The rest of the board reads as this trade's shadow. The franc is not behaving like a haven — softer on the median, and it gave the yen 32.4 basis points, the second-largest leg on the board, so the safety bid belongs entirely to Tokyo.

The Australian dollar beat the kiwi despite two soft domestic prints this session, consumer sentiment at -5.2% against 6.0% previously and business confidence at -8 against -6. Sterling is marginally soft after a retail sales monitor at 0.5% on the year against a 1.2% forecast, with Bank of England Monetary Policy Report hearings at 13:15 GMT the day's only scheduled test.

The Canadian dollar is firm on five of seven legs with its counter-tariffs on about C$27.6 billion of US goods now in force. And nothing official stands behind the yen: no intervention has been reported, the summer's operations — including the joint action in early August — were mounted against yen weakness rather than strength, and Washington's stated preference now runs the other way.

The 155.20-155.25 floor is well overhead and still untested from below. New York returns to a full session today, with American inflation on Friday, the Federal Reserve on the 15th and 16th and the Bank of Japan the week after. Until those votes land, this is a position being liquidated — and liquidations do not stop because the news stops.