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Japan's wage figures are still being bought. In the hour into mid-morning in Tokyo the yen rose a median 14.1 basis points against all seven of its major counterparts — 19.8 against the New Zealand dollar, 19.2 against the Australian, 16.2 against the US dollar — with nothing scheduled landing inside the hour itself.

The cause printed earlier in the session, in a release that rarely troubles the currency market: average cash earnings rose 4.7% on the year against a 3.8% forecast and 3.4% previously, the fastest nominal wage growth since January 1997, with base pay — the component the Bank of Japan actually watches — accelerating to its quickest since 1992.

Set beside the growth revision that lifted the quarter to 0.4% from 0.3%, that closes the last soft spot in the case for a hike, and Tokyo has spent the morning paying up for it: swaps now treat a quarter-point move on 18 September as all but certain, and JGB yields sit near their highest in three decades.

The rates picture has also turned onto the yen's side. US Treasury futures are rallying across the curve in the overnight book — the two-year up 1.1 basis points of price on the hour, the ten-year 2.9, the ultra bond 11.4 on the hour and 19.9 over four — with the long end leading, and European debt is doing the same, the Bund up 4.1 on the hour and the Buxl 7.8.

For two sessions the yen climbed into a widening rate gap; this morning the gap is closing with it, in a thin book ahead of Friday's American inflation report. What has changed most is who is arguing. MUFG, whose objection last week was that a single hike could not carry the yen away from 160, now says the break below 155 itself reinforces the bullish case, and the flow underneath is visible rather than inferred: official data has Japanese investors shedding foreign bonds at their fastest pace in four years, which is repatriation, not speculation.

The dollar fell as far as 154.05 on Monday and closed near 154.40 after a 1.1% fall, almost 4% below where it began last week; this session has carried the yen to a new seven-month high beyond that. The rest of the board is the same trade seen from the other end. The kiwi and the Aussie are the weakest majors and hand the yen its two largest legs — the funding currencies pay for the position — with China's August trade data still to come this session as the next thing either of them answers to.

The dollar is lower on the median but firmer against both of those: its softness is a yen story, not a dollar one. The franc is the second-firmest currency yet gave the yen 9.3 basis points, the smallest yen leg on the board, which is where the haven bid is not. The Canadian dollar is modestly firmer with its counter-tariffs on about C$27.6 billion of US goods now in force.

Sterling is a touch soft into Bank of England Monetary Policy Report hearings at 13:15 GMT — the day's only scheduled test before New York opens a full session and becomes the first real liquidity to vote on the broken 155.20-155.25 floor, which is still untested from below.