Yen sheds 13.6bp after touching 152.87 — the session's first losing hour
The yen is being trimmed, not sold. In the hour into mid-afternoon in Tokyo it gave back a median 13.6 basis points to all seven of its major counterparts — 15.1 to the New Zealand dollar, 13.1 to the US dollar, 11.9 to the euro — with no Japanese release since the growth and wage figures more than five hours ago, and no reporting attached to the hour itself.
It is the first losing hour of a session in which the yen has done nothing but rise, and it follows dollar-yen printing 152.87 earlier in the day, the yen's strongest since 18 February. The turn began before this hour rather than inside it: the pair had already recovered to 153.18 by 02:50 GMT.
Two things mark this as a pause. The first is the shape of it. Every leg sits between 11.9 and 15.1 basis points — barely three basis points of spread across seven different currencies, which is what a single position being reduced looks like — while the rest of the board is inert.
The widest median anywhere else is the euro's 1.7 basis points of softness; the dollar, sterling, the Australian and Canadian dollars and the franc are all inside a basis point of flat. Nothing rotated. One trade was trimmed. The second is the size. The four buying hours of this session ran 12.7, 19.6, 14.1 and 31.9 basis points before last hour's stall; this hour returns less than the smallest of them, and roughly a fifth of what was taken.
The funding legs confirm the diagnosis. The New Zealand dollar is the firmest currency on the board at 1.9 basis points, after two consecutive hours of being sold 18, and the Australian dollar is higher too. The currencies sold hardest while the carry unwind ran are the ones bid the moment it stops — the same trade seen from the other end, and the clearest evidence yet that what has moved the yen since Tokyo opened is position rather than news.
The bond market let go in the same hour. The ten-year US note future gave up 1.5 basis points of price with the two-year and the ultra bond unchanged, and European debt did the same, the Bund down 0.8 and the 30-year Buxl down 1.0, all marking yields slightly higher. Over four hours the picture is unchanged and points the other way — the American curve up 1.5, 5.8 and 17.0 basis points of price across two, ten and thirty years, the German curve up 1.4, 4.9 and 11.7.
The duration bid that ran with the yen's advance paused when the yen did, which is one position being worked rather than four markets independently agreeing. The book is thin, and this is a small unwind inside a much larger one. Nothing behind the move has changed. Wage growth printed 4.7% on the year against a 3.8% forecast and 3.4% previously, the quarter was revised up to 0.4% from 0.3%, swaps still put roughly 80% on a hike at the 17-18 September meeting with only about a 5% chance of a half point, and the yen remains almost 4% stronger this month and the best major in the G10.
What stopped is the flow, not the argument. Nothing official stands on either side of it either: Tokyo's stated position is coordination with Washington for orderly moves and no comment on this week's strength has been reported, the summer's operations were mounted against yen weakness rather than strength, and Washington's declared preference runs toward a firmer yen.
The strength is being felt at home, with Japanese equities directionless and exporters carrying the cost — the Nikkei 225 up 0.4% above 66,700 while the broader Topix is down 0.6% near 4,100. Ahead, Bank of England Monetary Policy Report hearings at 13:15 GMT are the only scheduled test before New York opens its first full session since the holiday and becomes the first deep liquidity to price a yen at these levels, with American inflation on Friday, the Federal Reserve on the 15th and 16th where roughly 58% of a quarter-point hike is priced, and the dollar index just above 99.
The 155.20-155.25 floor the yen broke on Monday is now a long way overhead and still untested from below. This is what a trend looks like when it breathes. It becomes something else only if New York sells back what Tokyo bought.
13 sources
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