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The franc is being borrowed, not fled. In the hour into the European open it fell a median 17.2 basis points against all seven of its major counterparts, with no Swiss release near the window and no fresh Swiss news behind the hour — and the shape of the move says why. The legs sort almost exactly by interest rate: the Australian dollar, at 4.35% the highest-yielding currency on the board, took 22.8 basis points out of the franc; the US dollar, at 3.75% and priced toward a possible hike at next week's meeting, took 22.2; sterling took 18.6; the oil-bid Canadian dollar 17.2; the yen and euro about 12.5 each; and the New Zealand dollar — the board's other casualty this hour — almost nothing.

That is not a haven losing its bid. It is a funding currency being sold to finance positions in everything that pays more, and it happened on a morning when crude at three-month highs and the continuing Strait of Hormuz disruption would, if anything, argue for buying havens. The rotation has been building for weeks and the reporting names it plainly: with the yen up almost 4% this month, a September Bank of Japan hike all but priced and the summer's interventions demonstrating an official hand in the pair, borrowing yen has become the market's most dangerous trade — and Reuters reported investors setting sights on the franc for carry trades after the yen interventions, Bloomberg that carry traders had pivoted to the franc as yen volatility spiked, and Morgan Stanley now calls the euro and franc the funders of choice.

The franc is the only G8 currency at zero, and the Swiss National Bank is the only central bank with a declared readiness to intervene against its own currency's strength, stated in its June assessment — which makes the franc not merely the cheapest borrow on the board but the one with an official seller standing above it.

The clearest tell is the yen itself: in its third and smallest losing hour of the session, a median 4.4 basis points after 13.6 and 15.9, the yen still took 12.9 basis points out of the franc. The unwind of one funding trade is slowing while the establishment of its successor accelerates, and dollar-franc traded near 0.8090 through early European hours, the franc's weakest against the dollar since mid-August.

The kiwi is the second question, and it is the same answer read backwards. It fell a median 15.7 basis points, down against six of its seven counterparts, resuming the outright sale that paused for two hours — and its only gain was a bare 1.2 basis points against the franc, the currency being sold as the funder.

Nothing new has come out of New Zealand; the story is the one that has run all week, a central bank that hiked into guidance so gradual the currency fell on it. What this hour adds is a measure of how little the market wants the kiwi: in an hour defined by buying yield, a 2.75% currency could not catch a bid against anything except the zero-rate franc.

The Australian dollar, top of the carry, was again the firmest thing on the board, higher on all seven legs, and took 21.2 basis points from its neighbour. Elsewhere the euro is quietly soft into Thursday's European Central Bank decision, and the dollar is firm everywhere but against the yen and Australian dollar ahead of a week it owns — inflation on Friday, the Federal Reserve on the 15th and 16th.

Bank of England hearings at 13:15 GMT are the day's only scheduled test before New York opens its first full session since the holiday, with the yen's broken 155.20-155.25 floor still overhead and untested from below.