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Heartbeat, 8.0 hours after the last entry, and the board is flat into the NZ morning with one currency leaning: NZD is the firmest at +9.97bp median, all seven legs positive in a +4.7 to +14.7bp band, under gate threshold and with no NZ headline behind it — NZD/USD is consolidating just under the 0.6000 handle at its highest since June on September RBNZ-hike bets, so this reads as continuation flow into the Wellington open, not news.

Every other median sits inside 2.5bp (CHF +2.06bp, USD +0.81bp, AUD -2.47bp); no unexplained move, no captured print, no speech to explain. The day's scheduled CAD event landed as previewed: at 15:00 UTC Champagne, Joly, Hajdu and Solomon announced dollar-for-dollar countertariffs on roughly 700 US products — about US$20bn of annual imports at 15, 25 and 50% depending on the product, effective September 8, chosen state-by-state to 'put political pressure' in Joly's words — alongside C$7.5bn of worker and business supports and a C$2bn Canada Strong Diversification Fund.

Washington's answer was rhetorical: Trump posted on Truth Social that the US is giving 'serious consideration' to renaming Lake Ontario 'Lake America' because it does not expect to do 'much business with Ontario any longer', and LeBlanc declined to respond to social-media posts; no talks have resumed.

The loonie took the package in stride, up about 0.1% at 1.3835 on the day, and CAD's +0.15bp median this hour confirms the retaliation was priced before it was announced. The un-collapse trigger has not fired; September 8 is the live date. On Iran, the diplomacy that was moving toward talks at the last entry moved further: Pakistan's Munir reportedly carried a US proposal under which Washington would end the blockade and lift sanctions if Iran reopens Hormuz and halts its proxies, Naqvi said the Pezeshkian meeting 'concluded on a highly positive note' with 'significant progress', and Iran's deputy foreign minister Gharibabadi said a temporary Hormuz route has been agreed with Oman (entry and part of exit through Iranian waters, with joint mine-clearing) — while insisting the US must 'return to its commitments' under the MoU before the strait is open.

Oil believed the direction of travel: Brent fell about 6% to around $86 and WTI about 4.5% to around $81 on easing US-Iran tensions, the largest de-escalation print of the week, and the tanker hit by a projectile off Oman on Monday night remains the only incident. US data from the briefing was soft — CB Consumer Confidence 89.4 vs 90.3 forecast and 90.8 previous, New Home Sales 607K vs 620K, Richmond 4 vs 6 — and USD's +0.81bp says FX did not care; stocks did, with the S&P +0.32% to 7,677.28, the Dow +0.3% to 53,577.40 for a third straight gain and the Nasdaq +0.66% to 26,151.30 as Nvidia snapped its losing streak into Wednesday's results, and Treasury yields fell a second day as oil slid.

The rates block shows the same thing: USD 10y futures +8.634bp of price over 4h (yields down; the 1h -2.875bp yields-up cell is a thin-session leg, provisional), and the European close was a rally across the curve — Bund +23.476bp of price 1h and +26.317bp 4h, Buxl +40.03bp/+46.733bp, Schatz +9.961bp, all yields down, EUR session now closed so no spread is evaluable — off Bund yields that had been sitting near their highest since 2011 with a September ECB hike fully priced.

The oil drop is the obvious candidate; no ECB headline explains it. JPY is -0.46bp with no sign of fresh official activity. Nothing here makes the measured signals wrong about the regime: the Canadian retaliation is public, scheduled and priced on a measured board with no official actor setting CAD's price, and the Iran story is de-escalating toward talks with oil confirming.

No override, and no active overrides to keep or lift. Next risk: AUD CPI at 01:30 UTC, 192 minutes out (forecast m/m 0.9% vs -0.1% previous, y/y 3.3% vs 3.8%, trimmed mean 0.4% vs 0.3%), then July PCE Wednesday, Nvidia after the close Wednesday, and Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote Friday August 28.