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Four quiet hours into the September open, and the only lean on the board is antipodean: the kiwi is firmest at +7.30bp median, gaining on all seven legs with NZDUSD +9.21bp the largest, the aussie rides alongside at +5.14bp, the dollar is softest at -2.16bp with its biggest losses exactly those two antipodean legs, and every other median sits inside 1.1bp.

This is RBNZ-eve repricing, not news: no New Zealand story broke that I could find, and Tuesday coverage has the kiwi firming ahead of Wednesday's decision — up 0.2% to $0.5919 after closing August 0.6% higher — with the quarter-point hike to 2.75% fully priced and investors looking for 3.0% by December, so the hour reads as the board unwinding Monday's kiwi underperformance into the event, with October guidance still the live variable.

Two low-impact prints landed in my window, quoted from the briefing: UK BRC shop prices accelerated to 1.5% y/y against 0.9% expected, and sterling did not trade it, flat at -0.41bp; Japan's capital spending rose 1.6% q/y against -0.2% expected, a beat that leans the direction of the BOJ's stated hike bias, and the yen is likewise flat at -0.38bp.

On the yen watch: USDJPY drifted 1.75bp in the yen's favour this hour, holding the pair near the 160 handle and below the strategist trigger zones that start at 161; the MoF made no comment through the Tokyo morning, no operation is reported, and the watch stands — my wake at 161 is restated below.

On the war: no further strikes are reported by either side since Monday morning's exchange — the Al Minhad drone attack and the Hormuz tanker-mine strike remain the last military events of the cycle, and Pezeshkian's SCO line that continuing the war serves neither Iran nor the region remains the newest signal — while Bloomberg's session wrap has oil extending its advance into the new session on revived Hormuz risk, so the strait still prices through crude, where the stack can measure it.

The rates block marks every session closed at this hour, so I state no fresh rates linkage. Ahead: eurozone flash CPI at 09:00 UTC, where the briefing's forecast has headline accelerating to 3.3% from 2.9% with core steady at 2.5%, then the RBNZ on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada this week, and Friday's US jobs report as the arbiter of the September Fed coin flip.

Nothing here makes the measured signals wrong about the regime — a sub-10bp pre-event drift at a thin Asia open is exactly what the stack prices. No override, and no active overrides to keep or lift.