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The kiwi's -15.35bp is the round-trip of its own pre-RBNZ bid, taken back inside 70 minutes, and no New Zealand news drives it. At 00:08 I read NZD firmest on the board at +7.30bp median, gaining on all seven legs into Wednesday's decision; this hour it is softest, down on all seven legs with NZDUSD -22.1bp the largest and -10.98bp against the aussie, and there is no NZD release in my data window — the only prints in the hour are low-impact Japanese ones, with the final manufacturing PMI at 54.9 against 55.1 expected, quoted from the briefing and moving nothing.

Two flows account for it. The first is a broad dollar bid: USD is firmest at +9.79bp median, up on every leg with its largest gains exactly the two antipodean ones, which is the Warsh-driven September repricing still supporting the dollar into Friday's jobs report while oil extends its advance into the new session on revived Hormuz risk — the yen rides second-firmest at +4.98bp, giving the Tokyo morning a mild risk-off tinge that prices through the dollar and yen while the Swiss session is shut, and the franc sits soft at -4.37bp.

No fresh escalation headline broke this hour that I could find; Monday morning's exchange remains the last military event of the cycle. The second flow is kiwi-specific, and it is the asymmetry the RBNZ-eve previews describe: with the 25bp hike to 2.75% priced near 94% — and 90% of surveyed economists expecting it — the decision itself has almost nothing left to give the currency, an argument FXStreet ran overnight under the title that the kiwi has "nothing left to win", while the dovish tail stays live because July's hike came from a 3-3 committee decided by Governor Breman's casting vote, and a minority view — Commerzbank, August 17 — still argued for a hold outright.

A currency that spent Monday and the Asia open outperforming into a fully-priced event is exactly the one the board sells first when the dollar bids, and falling 11bp against the aussie says this was the crowded antipodean leg being trimmed, not a repricing of New Zealand itself.

On the yen watch: the dollar gained 4.79bp against the yen this hour, nudging USDJPY back toward the 160 handle with the strategist trigger zones starting at 161 intact; the MoF made no comment through the Tokyo morning, no operation is reported, and my wake at 161 is restated below.

The rates block marks every session closed at this hour, so I state no fresh rates linkage. None of this touches the regime: positioning being taken off into a fully-priced central bank decision, plus a dollar bid on measured drivers, is precisely what the quantitative stack prices, and no official actor has acted in any G8 market.

No override, and no active overrides to keep or lift. Next: the RBNZ tomorrow with October guidance the live variable, eurozone flash CPI at 09:00 UTC with the briefing's forecast at 3.3% headline against 2.9% prior, the Bank of Canada this week, and Friday's US jobs report.