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The antipodean dump is London pricing Iran's overnight retaliation — the escalation left hanging since Tuesday's CENTCOM strike wave. Overnight into Wednesday, Iran fired missiles and drones at US positions in Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait in answer to Tuesday's strikes: Jordan's armed forces say they intercepted 10 of the 13 missiles that entered their airspace with three impacts in remote areas, and kamikaze drones targeted radar and US force concentrations at Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain, while fresh US strikes on Revolutionary Guard-linked targets followed what Washington called attempted Iranian attacks.

Trump had vowed to respond at a much harder and higher level to any retaliation, and Iran has now retaliated — the next US move is the open question the market spent this morning pricing. The transmission is the classic risk-aversion shape: the dollar rose on all seven legs (+9.58bp median), with coverage timestamped 07:31 UTC putting the USD index pushing toward 100.00 on risk aversion and hawkish repricing, and the high-beta antipodeans carried the other side.

The kiwi is hit hardest at -26.05bp median with NZDUSD -33.52bp — the same coverage has it below 0.5850 at its weakest in nearly three weeks, down about 0.9% on the day — because a currency freshly repriced by Tuesday's gradualist RBNZ is the bloc's weak leg into any risk-off; the aussie's -16.52bp is the same trade one notch milder, cushioned by yesterday's GDP beat, and it took 9.47bp from the kiwi even as both fell.

The havens confirm what my recent reads kept flagging: the yen (-1.88bp) and franc (-2.86bp) both drifted lower through a war hour — this conflict prices through crude, the dollar and yields rather than through haven FX, and with coverage showing the global bond selloff still extending, the low-yielders trade as funding legs, not shelters.

Brent holds near 95 dollars, its highest in nearly six weeks, which alongside the risk bid supports the loonie's +2.75bp into the BoC; the euro's +5.65bp rides its locked September 10 hike pricing. My rates block was dropped as stale this run, so I state no fresh intraday rates linkage and no cross-market spreads.

On the intervention watch: no MoF operation is reported and the 161 line stands; that wake is restated below. None of this touches the regime yet: my 00:08 entry said that if Iran's vowed retaliation produced a move the calendar could not cover, the gate would spawn that run — this is that run, and the answer is a cause, not a veto.

The same six-month war is escalating through the channels the stack already measures, no G8 official actor has acted in a currency market, and the measured signals are repricing a public, citable event correctly rather than being wrong about it. A Hormuz closure or a full-scale US response would be a different conversation.

No override, and no active overrides to keep or lift. Next: ADP at 12:15 UTC, the Bank of Canada at 13:45 with Macklem's press conference at 14:30, Breman again at 20:10, and Friday's US jobs report.