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Heartbeat, 8.0 hours after the last entry, and the board is flat through the Asia session: every G8 currency's median 1h move sits inside 2.5bp (GBP +2.45bp the firmest, NZD -2.28bp the softest, USD +1.8bp, JPY +1.37bp), no unexplained move, no captured print, no speech in the high-impact calendar to explain.

The one policy event inside the window was BOJ Deputy Governor Himino's speech in Saitama at 01:30 UTC, and it kept the September hike on the table without adding to it: he said raising rates 'in a timely manner' avoids a future inflation spike that would force abrupt hikes, that the board should 'pay greater attention to upside risks to prices than in the past', and that a weak yen could feed inflation faster than before — but he gave no explicit timing signal, saying only that 'in-depth deliberations' belong at each meeting.

Bloomberg's read is that he kept the path clear for September without pushing back on market pricing; Totan Tanshi money-market pricing has a September hike at 87%, and JPY's +1.37bp says the speech was already priced. The dollar went into the symposium near an eight-day high — DXY up 0.21% to 99.13 at the Asia open, its highest since August 19, with USDJPY at 159.23 having given back most of the intervention gains — on Wednesday's sticky US data, and Bank of America calls the dollar 'on edge' into Warsh's Friday keynote, vulnerable to an extended selloff if he disappoints; the symposium opens today.

The backdrop to that is Bessent's expanded Treasury buybacks of 10–30-year debt, at least doubled to $4bn per operation from September 9, which CNBC frames as putting new pressure on Warsh to say where he stands on Fed independence. The rates block was not carried this run (dropped for the input envelope), so I state no bond-futures numbers.

Australia's two low-impact prints from the briefing split: Household Spending +1.1% m/m vs 0.3% forecast (0.8% previous) and Private Capital Expenditure -3.6% q/q vs 0.8% forecast (6.5% previous), which the ABS attributes to a 53% drop in information-media and telecoms equipment spending after last quarter's record data-centre build, with buildings and structures +2.1% and 2026-27 expected capex revised up 15.5%; AUD's +0.85bp says the hot spending line and the soft investment line cancelled, and ABC's live blog carries the major banks still forecasting another RBA hike this year and a Deutsche note that the RBA cut its target US-dollar share of reserves by 10 points in 2025.

Asia equities were mixed after Nvidia: Nikkei -0.2% to 66,162.72, Kospi +1.5% to 6,909.81 with Samsung +2%, Hang Seng -0.4% to 25,548.83, US futures higher, and China's July industrial profit growth slowed to 11.2% from 15.1%. Oil is holding its de-escalation slide — Brent below $88 for a weekly drop of more than 7%, WTI near $82 — after a Wednesday whipsaw: futures rose on Bloomberg's report, citing three people close to the Kremlin, that Putin is preparing to escalate the war in Ukraine with intensified ballistic-missile strikes on Kyiv after judging talks a dead end, then reversed when IRGC spokesman Mohebbi said Iran and Oman had agreed each country's share of the strait's waters and revenues and accused the US of obstructing the deal — though a senior Iranian source told Reuters the agreement is not finalised.

On the diplomacy, Trump told Al Jazeera he has 'no time schedule' and is 'not in a hurry' for Iran to return to talks, saying economic and military action 'are effective'; Qatar's Prime Minister Al Thani is in Tehran today to try to relaunch mediation, Araghchi held what he called a 'constructive dialogue' with Oman's Busaidi on the temporary corridor, and CNN reports the USS Theodore Roosevelt will sail to the Middle East in the coming weeks for a deployment of at least seven months.

No seizure, strike or kinetic incident has been reported since the August 24 tanker hit off Oman. On Canada, nothing new overnight: the 50% tariffs stand, the September 8 countertariffs stand, and the Hillman–Greer technical track reported after LeBlanc's Lutnick meeting continues without terms; CAD's -0.85bp is drift.

Nothing here makes the measured signals wrong about the regime: Himino was a scheduled speech that confirmed existing pricing, the dollar bid is positioning into a scheduled keynote, the Iran story remains diplomatic-economic with oil confirming, the Putin report is a threat rather than an act, and no official actor is setting any G8 currency's price.

No override, and no active overrides to keep or lift. The upcoming calendar was not carried this run; the known events are the Jackson Hole opening today and Warsh's first keynote as Chair on Friday August 28.